Now that the dust has had a chance to settle from the great road win in Lawrence, Kansas State faces another road trip to Waco to take on the upstart Baylor Bears. If you looked at this game at the beginning of the season, you probably didn’t expect there to be controversy that this game was not televised. Both K-State and Baylor can qualify for a bowl game with a win. Making this game huge for the Wildcats; who will then head into a tough three week stretch with games against Oklahoma State, Texas, and at Missouri. With KSU finishing the regular season against North Texas, this game has much more significance to Baylor’s bowl chances than the Wildcats’. Baylor will finish their remaining four games against the teeth of the Big 12 South with road games at Texas and Oklahoma State, before hosting Texas A&M and Oklahoma; all of which are games Baylor could possibly lose, and would thus not reach a bowl game.
This game will be won or lost by the K-State rush defense. The Wildcats will have to put the Kansas win out of their head, and revisit what they learned from the humbling defeat against Nebraska. Baylor brings a similar offensive game plan to the table with great speed in the backfield; however unlike Nebraska, the Bears have the ability to beat you in the air as well. The Baylor offense is capable of putting up points in a hurry. Baylor features an impressive offense which nationally ranks 13th in passing and 35th in rushing making them difficult to defend against.
Running the ball is the sparkplug that allows this offensive to score points. Like Michigan’s Denard Robinson, the passing and rushing game all go through quarterback Robert Griffin III. With a diverse mix of zone read, option, misdirection, play action, and multiple receiver packages, the Bears rely on Griffin to key the running game and get the ball to their speedsters in the open field where they can simply outrun the defense. The Wildcats have had problems stopping the run all season long, so look for the Bears to test the Wildcats on the ground early and often.
The key to slowing down this Baylor team is to throw off the timing of the running game and move the line of scrimmage. Getting into the backfield early and disrupting the fakes, exchanges, and pitch lanes is the best way to force Baylor out of their rhythm and become one dimensional. The defensive ends will also have to contain Griffin and keep him from escaping the pocket. When mobile quarterbacks escape the pocket, they force defensive backs to commit to either the run or the pass, and this is where they hurt you. By attacking and containing Griffin, it will force him to either run or go short. If the speedy Baylor receivers have time to get down-field, Griffin has the arm to get the ball deep to them, and where Baylor can hurt you in the passing game. The Wildcats can take comfort in the fact that the Baylor rushing attack is not as talented as Nebraska’s; and outside of their 45-10 loss to TCU, the Wildcats pose about the strongest threat that the Bears have faced this year.
The offensive game plan used against KU is a blueprint for how this team best scores points, and it’s not on the legs of Daniel Thomas. One of the reasons that the K-State offense performed well against Kansas was the fact that Carson Coffman had time in the pocket to distribute the ball to many different targets, and not relying on Thomas to set up the passing game. Eight different receivers caught passes against KU. The offensive line gave Coffman time to make good decisions and execute low risk passes. When Coffman ran the option he quickly cut up-field and was more decisive with the ball, rather than hovering around the line of scrimmage.
Every team expects the Wildcats to ride Thomas all game long. William Powell has proven to be a playmaker when he touches the ball. A “wildcat” backfield of Thomas (with a green light to pass), and Powell would provide a great change of pace, and create some matchup problems for the Bears. However, if Coffman can hit a big play down field (or even just threaten from time to time) like he did with Chris Harper against the Jayhawks, the game will open up significantly for Thomas to have some big gains on the ground.
The Wildcats will need to sustain drives to keep the Baylor offense off the field, and force them to play a shorter, more possession-based game. This K-State offense is not built to score quickly, and does not want to get in a track meet with Baylor. If the K-State defense can hold Baylor under 150 rushing yards, they have a chance to win this game and punch their ticket to a probable bowl game.
