It is week 3 of the college football season and thus far it has been a shocking and exciting season. Every week has featured multiple head-turning upsets such as Kansas losing to North Dakota State and then defeating 15th-ranked Georgia Tech the following week. James Madison also pulled a shocker against 13th-ranked Virginia Tech, and Jacksonville State defeated Mississippi in a shootout. Games like these are why college football is the greatest sport in America. Anyone can win on any given day.
The FCS schools have come to play this year, and no game can be considered a sure win anymore. Kansas State avoided a potential upset last week against the Missouri State Bears of the Missouri Valley Conference. The game was much more physical than would normally be expected from an FCS school, but the Wildcats were able to prevail by a score of 48-24.
The Missouri State game was not an easily-won game as the Bears played with passion and refused to give up throughout the game. The game likely would have been closer than 27-7 if not for a celebration penalty after a Missouri State touchdown. Unfortunately for the Bears, however, the penalty happened and the ensuing Wildcat touchdown was pretty much the dagger for this game.
Kansas State moved to 2-0 with the victory and will look to continue their early success against Big 12 foe Iowa State this weekend in Kansas City.
A look at the Cyclones
Iowa State returns eight starters from their talented offense last year, including the starting quarterback Austin Arnaud, running back Alexander Robinson, and Jake Williams, the team’s second-leading receiver.
Last season Iowa State turned heads as they upset Nebraska in Lincoln and then went on to make a bowl game against Minnesota, which they won. The Cyclones did struggle on offense, at least in the passing game. The Cyclones proved to be one of the most explosive running teams in the conference, however. Robinson led the charge as the Cyclones averaged 179 rushing yards per game (good for fourth-best in the Big 12). The defense must rebuild as only four starters return from last year’s squad.
Iowa State in 2010
The Cyclones have started the 2010 season 1-1. They opened the year with a 27-10 win against Northern Illinois. Iowa State’s offense struggled throughout the game, but locked it down in the fourth quarter to secure the victory. Iowa State was knocked around by in-state rival Iowa at Kinnick Stadium last week. Robinson was held to just 48 rushing yards and the stellar Hawkeye defense flustered Arnaud all day as he completed less than 50% of his passes and threw 3 interceptions. The lone touchdown for Iowa State came late in the fourth quarter, making the final score 35-7 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
The Cyclone defense struggled even more than the offense against the Hawkeyes. With only 11 complete passes, Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi passed for 204 yards and two touchdowns. He was only sacked once, and Adam Robinson ran all over the Cyclones, amassing 156 yards rushing on just 14 carries (11.1 ypc) with two touchdowns.
Last Year in Arrowhead
The last time the Wildcats and Cyclones met was one of the most exciting games of the season. Kansas State defeated Iowa State on a blocked extra point that would have sent the game into overtime. It also marked the game where former Wildcat quarterback Grant Gregory took over the starting job from Carson Coffman. Alexander Robinson played in limited action but lit up Kansas State with 4 carries for 47 yards while in the game. Arnaud struggled against the Kansas State secondary but did not make any major mistakes.
Cyclone Offense
Iowa State’s offense has struggled thus far in the season, averaging only 17 points per game. They average only 108 rushing yards per game and the passing attack has been much worse. Still, even with the offense struggling, Iowa State does have some significant playmakers and is led by an experienced offensive line.
Austin Arnaud (6’3″ 220lb senior quarterback) – returns to lead the Cyclones. Arnaud has been a major playmaker for the Cyclones for the past three seasons. The dual-threat QB has struggled immensely this season as he has already thrown five interceptions compared to just one touchdown. He played very well against Northern Illinois as he passed for 265 yards on 27-of-36 (75 percent) passing, but he failed to throw a touchdown while he threw two interceptions. What really makes Arnaud such a threat, however, is his ability to run. In his career he has run for over 1,000 yards with 14 touchdowns. The Kansas State defense will need to pressure Arnaud to make him make poor decisions.
Alexander Robinson (5’9″ 190lb senior running back) – Robinson is a playmaker for the Cyclones. Last season, hampered by an injury, he managed to run for 1,195 rushing yards on 232 carries (5.2 ypc). He has amassed 2,508 career rushing yards and 20 career rushing touchdowns. He is an experienced back. Robinson ranks ninth all-time in Cyclones rushing history and is only 54 yards shy of moving up to eighth place and only 354 yards shy of the top five. Robinson is one of the most underrated players in the Big 12. He has not performed poorly this season, but he has not gotten the touches that an all-conference back would expect to get, either. In two games he has run for 145 yards on 30 carries (4.8 ypc). He has, however, had more reps through the air as he already has 10 catches compared to his 17 for all of last season. Expect Robinson to be used much more in the game against the Cats.
Jake Williams (6’2″ 203lb senior wide receiver) – Williams is the receiver with the most returning experience at the position. He has been shut down through two games as he only has three catches for 28 yards, but he is still a senior leader that brings depth to the Cyclones. Last season Williams had his best game of the season against Kansas State with five catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.
The offensive line for the Cyclones is also very experienced. They have three big impact offensive lineman in Kelechi Osemele (6’5″ 335lb junior – started 17 games in a row and was second-team all Big 12 in 2009), Alex Alvarez (6’2″ 305lb senior – 19 straight starts), and Ben Lamaak (6’4″ 320lb senior – 34 career starts, former high school quarterback). The other two starters for the Cyclones are Hayworth Hicks (6’3″ 320lb junior – played every game in 2008 but missed 2009 due to injury) and Brayden Burris (6’6″ 290lb sophomore – this will be his fourth career start).
Cyclone Defense
The Cyclone defense was not overly impressive in 2009, nor have they been in 2010 as expected after losing eight starters on defense. They have allowed 22.5 points per game (67th best in the nation) and have allowed 215.5 yards rushing per game. This spells bad news with Daniel Thomas lining up against the Cyclones this weekend. The Cyclone secondary has played very well thus far, allowing opponents only 2 touchdowns while intercepting three passes (QB efficiency of 103.2).
The linebackers for the Cyclones are relatively inexperienced, but they do seem to be the players leading the team thus far. They have two star sophomores who have lit up the tackle column through two games.
AJ Klein (6’1″ 240lb sophomore linebacker) – The lack of experience returning has led true sophomore AJ Klein to become the leader of the defense. In just two games he already has 26 tackles including two for loss. He has been the most impressive player on the defense as he leads the Cyclones in tackles by 11 tackles. He played every game last season as a true freshman, racking up 17 tackles and forcing a fumble.
Jake Knott (6’2″ 240lb sophomore linebacker) – Another fellow true sophomore linebacker who also played every game last season, racking up 23 tackles, Knott has also put up solid numbers in the first two games this season. He has 15 tackles, which is second best on the team. He also leads the team in interceptions with two. Knott has also forced a fumble.
The defensive line has been a bit of a letdown through the start of the season. They have been ineffective in stopping the run and will look to improve on that coming into Kansas City this week. They are an experienced group with two senior starters (Bailey Johnson defensive tackle – started ten games / Rashawn Parker right end – missed 2009 due to an knee injury, has 8 career sacks) and two junior starters (Patrick Neal left end – 11 career starts / Stephan Ruempolhamer nose guard – had a career game against Iowa with 7 tackles).
The secondary for the Cyclones is the most experienced part of the team. They have two senior safeties (David Sims – 2009 Big 12 newcomer of the year / Michael O’Connell – 74 career tackles) and two junior cornerback starters (Leonard Johnson – junior, was a freshman all-American / Ter’Ran Benton – had three tackles against Northern Illinois but missed the Iowa game due to family funeral). They will attempt to stop the passing attack that was explosive against Missouri State.
The Cyclones have a very experienced kicker and a brand new punter. Grant Mahoney (junior kicker) has connected on 32-of-48 career field goal attempts and is 63-of-67 on extra point attempts. His career long is a 52-yard field goal, showing that he does have leg strength. Freshman punter Kirby Van Der Kamp is the projected starter against the Cats this week. He made his first career start last week against Iowa, booming 7 punts for an average of 40.4 yards per punt.
Three Keys to Victory
- Pressure the Quarterback
The pass rush for Kansas State was pretty bad against Missouri State. Although Cody Kirby for Missouri State is a much more accurate QB than Cyclones QB Arnaud, he does not have nearly as good of a line nor is he as dangerous of a scrambler as Arnaud. If Kansas State wants to beat the Cyclones, they will have to get to Arnaud early and often. - Pound the Rock
Watching Iowa State, it is relatively easy to see that their biggest weakness is their rush defense. Luckily for Kansas State, they have Daniel Thomas who has torn up UCLA as well as Missouri State. He will need to continue his streak to control the game speed and give the Wildcats a victory. - Be Confident
The thing that cursed the Ron Prince‘s Wildcats was the lack of confidence. Those teams never had an identity and they never had any swagger. This Wildcat defense has shown some impressive play from David Garrett and Terrence Sweeney, as well as Brandon Harold, but at the same time has looked sluggish in terms of pressure on the quarterback.
The Prediction
These two teams are fairly evenly-matched which makes this a very tough prediction. Kansas State has played pretty well against the run and Iowa State has looked very poorly. The passing game has been up and down for both teams in the first two games, but Kansas State has confidence, while the Cyclones are looking to rebound from an embarrassing loss last weak to their instate rivals. The Wildcat offense has moved the ball well, unlike when these two teams met last season. The Wildcat defense is forming an identity of their own, referring to themselves as the “Purple Swarm”. It is not as catchy as “Lynch Mob” but this defense is not the Lynch Mob, at least at this venture. I see Kansas State winning this game but I think it may be closer than some K-State fans might think. Final score: KSU 31 ISU 23
